Inventory Forecasting - Simple
This model is a 7-sheet Excel workbook where you fill in only the yellow cells, and everything else calculates automatically.
How it works:
The Inventory Data sheet lists SKUs with unit cost, sell price, lead time, current stock, and six months of sales history. Demand Forecast projects the next 6 months per SKU using a trend-adjusted average, while the Reorder Plan calculates safety stock, reorder point, and economic order quantity (EOQ), flagging SKUs as “REORDER NOW” or “OK.”
The Hidden Costs sheet highlights six annualised cost layers on held stock: carrying, capital tied up, obsolescence/spoilage, shrinkage, ordering costs, and stockout risk. Rates are adjustable on the Assumptions sheet.
With sample data, the model shows approximately $5,700 of inventory incurring about $7,000/year in hidden costs, illustrating how holding costs can surpass stock value.
The Dashboard summarises the results with a cost breakdown chart.
Keep in mind that the forecast uses a linear-trend method, which may not capture strong seasonality. The safety-stock formula assumes normal demand variability, and default rates should be replaced with actual business figures.
This is not financial advice; the assumptions drive everything, so the accuracy of the numbers is dependent on the quality of the inputs.
If you would like access to the Bayesian-Monte Carlo model and wish to incorporate seasonality handling (a minimum of 18 months of data is required), or if you are interested in adding a multi-location version or a supplier/minimum order quantity layer, please get in touch.
Operational Costs - Calculator: Intro to Financial Modelling for SMEs
This two-sheet model is designed to help solopreneurs and microbusinesses understand the cash flow necessary for effective operations. As terms like “fractional” and “consultancy” become increasingly common, it is essential to identify where costs are incurred, what steps are needed for the business to become sellable, and how much labour and inventory will cost.
The What Needs to Be True section allows you to outline all costs and revenues, helping you comprehend net cash flow and cash balance. The model includes built-in functions to pinpoint potential risks. The Operating Reality sheet provides insights into the cost of hiring each person and how that impacts your cash flow.
Please note that this is not financial advice; it is a simple tool for gaining a snapshot of your company’s current situation, what needs to happen, and what possibilities may arise.
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